US-stocks

Tesla long-term EW-Analysis

Max Oen

30 Oct 2025 — 2 min read

This chart represents our primary long term expectations for Tesla.

After completing an extended bullish impulse phase, Tesla has likely established its initial green Wave (1) and is now undergoing a corrective green Wave (2). From the current structure, we can identify two primary scenarios moving forward.

1. Bullish Scenario

In our bullish outlook, Tesla has already completed its corrective Wave (2) in the form of an ABC correction (orange). If the market now manages to break above the prior all-time high — corresponding to orange Wave (B) at $487.91 — this would strongly confirm that green Wave (3) is already underway.
Such a move would signal renewed bullish momentum and open the path for Tesla to continue its larger impulsive advance.

2. Bearish Scenario

In the alternative scenario, Tesla is still completing its corrective Wave (2), with the market currently progressing through the final stages of orange Wave (C).
A break below the local support level at $368.24 would validate this bearish interpretation. If confirmed, we would then expect the market to decline further into our ideal retracement zone, ranging from the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $158.63down to the 78.6% level at $88.87.

This zone marks the optimal accumulation area, where Tesla is anticipated to complete green Wave (2) and prepare for a major bullish reversal.

Trading Plan:

Regardless of which scenario unfolds, both projections ultimately converge on the same broader expectation: Tesla should eventually begin a strong impulsive advance in green Waves 3, 4, and 5, forming the larger yellow Wave 1 of the next higher degree.
Over the long term, this structure projects potential upside targets within the 161.8%–261.8% Fibonacci extension range, spanning from $883.22 up to $1,295.76.

This outlook reflects our primary expectation for Tesla`s long-term performance. Always ensure that you review our long-term projections first before moving on to our mid- and short-term Elliott Wave analyses.

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