Nvidia EW-Analysis
This chart represents Nvidia in its Mid-short term Elliot wave analysis, with our primary expectations for this market.
NVIDIA appears to be approaching the final stages of its yellow Wave 1, completing its first major long-term impulsive advance. Once this larger impulse is finalized, the stock is expected to transition into a corrective yellow Wave 2, which should unfold as a more prolonged consolidation phase before the broader bullish trend resumes.
Before reaching this long-term top, however, the short-term structure suggests that NVIDIA may still offer one final buying opportunity before topping out and beginning the next corrective cycle. The light-blue wave sequence has already completed an impulsive Wave 1, followed by a corrective Wave 2, and an extended Wave 3 — the strongest phase of the sequence. At present, the stock is correcting within light-blue Wave 4, which is expected to act as the final pullback before the market regains upward momentum and pushes into light-blue Wave 5, thereby completing both green Wave 5 and yellow Wave 1.
For this short-term correction in light-blue Wave 4, we have defined a Fibonacci retracement target zone between the 23.6% and 38.2% retracement levels, ranging from 161.28 USD down to 147.01 USD. This area represents a technically significant region where the correction could potentially end, allowing the market to reestablish bullish momentum and move into its final impulsive advance.
If NVIDIA successfully completes its Wave 4 within this target zone and subsequently breaks above its all-time high at 195.47 USD, it would confirm the continuation of the impulse toward our Fibonacci expansion target zone. This projected target range extends from the 138.2% expansion level at 222.24 USD to the 161.8% expansion level at 245.41 USD. Within this region, we expect the final phase of the long-term yellow Wave 1 to complete, marking the potential formation of a major top before the next larger corrective movement begins.
Trading Plan:
We recommend waiting for one of two signals before taking action. Either wait for NVIDIA to enter the Fibonacci retracement zone between 161.28 USD and 147.01 USD, which could present a final short-term buying opportunity, or wait for a confirmed breakout above the all-time high at 195.47 USD to validate the start of the final impulsive rally. Once price reaches the 222–245 USD region, we expect the stock to complete yellow Wave 1 and begin its transition into the corrective yellow Wave 2, in line with our broader long-term expectations.
Keep in mind:
This outlook reflects our primary expectation for Nvidia`s Mid to short-term performance. Always ensure that you review our long-term projections first before moving on to our mid- and short-term Elliott Wave analyses.
