Microsoft EW-Update

We have expanded the retracement range for Microsoft.

The stock is currently approaching the final phase of its corrective structure and has already reached the lower boundary of our initially defined zone at the 38.2% retracement level at 479.19 USD. For this reason, we are giving Microsoft additional room to complete its correction and are now incorporating the 50% Fibonacci level at 455.63 USD.

This adjusted range represents our final retracement zone and forms the basis of our primary scenario for Microsoft. After allowing the market slightly more downside flexibility, we still strongly expect this zone to hold and for the structure to validate.

Within this area, we anticipate Microsoft to stabilize, establish a bottom, and subsequently regain bullish momentum. From there, the stock should advance into its final high for dark blue wave 5 and complete light blue wave 5 of a higher degree. This move will finalize the ongoing green wave structure and initiate a new higher-degree cycle into yellow wave 1.

Should our primary expectation not play out (which we consider unlikely), we have prepared an alternative scenario outlining the next potential structural developments.

Alternative Scenario:

If Microsoft loses our Fibonacci retracement zone to the downside, the stock may have already topped and completed yellow wave 1 (as indicated by the alternative labeling). In this case, Microsoft would already be in its corrective phase into yellow wave 2 (alt. 2).

For this alternative scenario to be confirmed, Microsoft must decisively break below the red-marked support levels at 394.65 USD and 344.79 USD.

We continue to adhere to our primary expectation and will keep you updated on any structural developments—whether they validate our primary scenario or lead to its invalidation.