Microsoft EW-Update

Microsoft is ready for a last dance!

After initially respecting our predefined Fibonacci retracement zone, Microsoft has returned to retest the area between the 23.6% level at $508.33 and the 38.2% level at $479.19. The stock appears to have established a solid bottom, likely marking the completion of the corrective wave 4 in dark blue, within our anticipated retracement zone.

From here, we expect Microsoft to regain bullish momentum and begin its final impulsive advance in dark blue wave 5. This movement should unfold as light blue wave 5, thereby completing the green wave 5 and finalizing the yellow wave 1 of a new larger-degree sequence. Within this structure, we anticipate the emergence of a major cyclical top, representing the culmination of the current bullish cycle.

Trading Outlook

Microsoft currently trades within our Fibonacci retracement zone that we first outlined on October 6th, 2025, presenting what we view as a final strategic buying opportunity. A confirmed breakout above the current all-time high at $555.56would validate the beginning of wave (5) and signal the resumption of the primary uptrend.

Our upside Fibonacci projection for the completion of yellow wave 1 extends from the 123.6% extension at $604.53to the 161.8% extension at $784.71. Within this zone, we recommend taking profits, as we expect Microsoft to form a major cycle high, followed by a corrective decline into yellow wave 2.

We will continue to provide timely updates as price action evolves and as key technical confirmations unfold.