Coinbase (COIN)

Coinbase= New Opportunities Ahead

Since early 2023, Coinbase has begun an impulsive sequence, completing light-blue wave 1. The subsequent correction into light-blue wave 2 established the structural foundation for our current Elliott-Wave count.

Coinbase then unfolded a highly volatile yet clearly bullish light-blue wave 3, followed by a further consolidation in light-blue wave 4, and finally a terminating impulse into light-blue wave 5, thereby completing the entire light-blue cycle.
This completed light-blue cycle builds green wave 1, which represents the first major long-term impulsive sequence and sets the base for our broader long-term outlook.

At present, we expect Coinbase to be in a corrective phase developing into long-term green wave 2. We anticipate this correction to form a standard A–B–C zigzag structure (labeled in orange), completing green wave 2 once all three legs unfold.

Since 21 July 2025, Coinbase has topped out and initiated the first corrective decline, forming orange wave A. For this wave, we defined a Fibonacci retracement zone where we expected orange wave A to terminate and short-term bullish momentum to return.
This first retracement zone spans from the 50% level at $237.82 down to the 61.8% level at $189.01 (highlighted in neon green).
This zone played out precisely as anticipated: Coinbase regained bullish momentum and successfully completed orange wave A.

We now expect the market to maintain short-term upside momentum in order to develop orange wave B. For wave B, we have identified a second Fibonacci retracement zone, which in this context represents an optimal shorting zone.
This zone (marked in red) extends from the 50% level at $337.76 up to the 78.6% level at $398.87.
Within this zone, we expect Coinbase to lose the newly gained momentum and reverse downward toward its local support, defined by the orange wave A low at $231.17 (marked in red).

Once orange wave B completes and the market breaks this local support, we anticipate a decline into our third Fibonacci retracement zone, unfolding orange wave C and thereby completing green wave 2.

This third zone represents a prime long-term accumulation area for Coinbase and, in our view, marks a highly attractive buying opportunity. If you choose to short or reduce exposure within our anticipated orange-wave-B shorting zone, we recommend closing those short positions once price reaches this final retracement area (second zone highlighted in neon green).

Our final Fibonacci retracement zone—where we expect green wave 2 to terminate—spans from the 61.8% level at $198.95 down to the 78.6% level at $120.53.
Upon reaching this zone and establishing the final low of green wave 2, Coinbase should begin a new long-term impulsive sequence, initiating bullish green wave 3.

Once green wave 2 is confirmed and its termination level is set, we will project our price targets for the upcoming long-term green wave 3.

We maintain a short-term bearish outlook on Coinbase, while our long-term perspective remains decisively bullish!

Should any structural changes occur, or should any of the discussed Fibonacci zones be hit, we will immediately provide an updated outlook.

Kind regards,

Monalytics