Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) - Update

Max Oen

28 Nov 2025 — 2 min read

We were right!

Bitcoin has successfully left its short zone for its overshooting orange wave b. We anticipated this short zone for Bitcoin as early as 14th July 2025, and this expectation has now been validated as Bitcoin breaks below its local support at 98,327.06 USD (marked in red).

With orange wave b completed inside our shorting zone, Bitcoin has now created red wave a from the red cycle, which unfolds into orange wave c, ultimately completing our long-term green wave 2.

At this moment, we expect Bitcoin to prepare a slight upward movement into red wave b, before breaking down further into red wave c, forming orange wave c and completing bearish green wave 2.

Red Wave b — Fibonacci Retracement Zone (Short Zone)

For red wave b, we have set a Fibonacci retracement zone in which we expect this short-term bullish movement to end, and where momentum should shift from short-term bullish to clear bearish continuation into red wave c.

This expected retracement zone for red wave b stretches from:

50% at 103,368.40 USD,
up to
78.6% at 116,442.06 USD.

This area represents our short zone, where it is a fair price to sell Bitcoin before reaccumulating in our long-term Fibonacci retracement zone, where we expect Bitcoin to terminate bearish green wave 2.

Long-Term Fibonacci Retracement Zone (Green Wave 2 Termination)

Originally, this zone expanded from:

50% at 62,459.12 USD
down to
61.8% at 51,343.44 USD.

We have also opened the possibility for Bitcoin to break below the 61.8% level, extending the zone down to the:

78.6% at 35,517.74 USD.

This represents the absolute maximum we expect Bitcoin to correct within the entire corrective structure of green wave 2.

Trading Plan:

We expect Bitcoin to have successfully completed red wave a and now to begin an impulsive structure into our short/sell zone for red wave b.
→ Within this zone, we are shorting and selling Bitcoin.

If, afterward, prices leave this zone to the downside and start the first movements into red wave c, we will wait until Bitcoin breaks below its second local support at 74,451.07 USD and reaches our long-term Fibonacci retracement zone to complete green wave 2.

Within this long-term zone, momentum should shift from bearish to bullish, and a new strong impulse should be initiated to begin the first moves into the next bullish wave (green wave 3).
→ Within the zone for green wave 2, which represents a prime opportunity to buy Bitcoin, we will buy and reaccumulate Bitcoin.

We remain short-term bearish and willing to short this market until Bitcoin reaches our long-term retracement zone to complete bearish wave 2. From there, our sentiment shifts clearly to bullish.

If Bitcoin reaches our anticipated zones or if any structural changes occur, we will update you immediately.

Kind regards,

Monalytics

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